Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from God’s Not Dead 2‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 8 – 10, 2016.
This weekend, The Boss plays in 3,482 theaters and Hardcore Henry debuts in 3,015 locations. In limited release, Demolition opens in 854 theaters and Mr. Right plays in 35 locations.
In what should be a tight race for the top spot, we’re giving the edge to Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice (read our review). Zack Snyder’s latest superhero film took a significant hit in business last week, dropping 69 percent and grossing $51.3 million in its second weekend (after making $166 million in its first three days). Dividing critics and audiences, the launching pad for the DC Extended Universe seems to be struggling to overcome the mixed word-of-mouth as its run progresses and the enthusiasm for it isn’t as widespread as it was a couple weeks ago. Still, the blockbuster remains the most high-profile film playing and its bringing together three iconic comic book characters should be enough to carry it for a three-peat. Even if it sees another big drop-off, it’s making enough to be #1.
Our pick for second is new comedy The Boss (read our review), the latest vehicle for Melissa McCarthy. The actress has proven to be one of the leading ladies of the genre in recent years, with hits like Bridesmaids ($169.1 million), The Heat ($159.5 million), and Spy ($110.8 million) all under her belt. However, she is prone to the occasional misstep; Tammy underperformed at $84.5 million. What all of her biggest movies have in common is a strong critical reception, which fuels interest in seeing it. McCarthy is a star, but it looks like just her name isn’t enough to sell audiences on whatever concept she’s working with.
That could be a problem for The Boss, which received very poor reviews that paint it as a thin, inconsistent mess. Though McCarthy’s status as an A-lister will draw in her most devoted fans and those looking for a comedy, but it’s doubtful that the film has much pull with mainstream viewers. Projections indicate an opening weekend of $17.5 million, which is actually less than what Tammy managed a couple years back.
Our choice for third is Zootopia (read our review). Disney Animation’s latest blockbuster continues to hold very well, finishing in second last week with $19.3 million. As one of the best reviewed movies of the year and a project with cross-generational appeal, there’s no reason to believe it will take a big hit this week at the box office and continue to draw in sizable crowds.
Coming in fourth should be Hardcore Henry (read our review), a new action film that’s shot entirely in the first-person. That’s a gimmick that certainly sounds intriguing, and genre junkies could be interested in checking it out. However, it sounds like the unique presentation is all that Hardcore Henry has going for it. Critics overall have given it credit for its inventiveness at attempting something new with a classic Hollywood genre, but say that the story and characterization are too thin to resonate with audiences. The experience should likely be enough to bring in curious moviegoers, but this isn’t going to be a crossover sensation. Estimates have it pegged for an opening weekend of around $10.2 million.
Rounding out the top five should be My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 (read our review), which came in third last week with $11.2 million. It’s no blockbuster, but the original has a large enough following to keep it hanging around for at least another week.
We predicted that Batman V Superman would drop around 60 percent in its second weekend, but it actually fell 69 percent.
Next Week: The Boss, The Jungle Book, and more!